ASEAN: Its Current Standing and Future Economic Trajectory

Generated Title: ASEAN's "Neutrality Anchor"? Data Suggests a Different Reality.

ASEAN likes to tout its unity, its "centrality," its commitment to peace. The narrative is compelling. But does the data back it up? Recent pronouncements from the bloc, specifically around Timor-Leste's accession and the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) Treaty, deserve a closer look. Are we seeing genuine progress, or just skillful PR glossing over deeper fractures?

Cracks in the Facade

The claim is that Timor-Leste's entry and commitment to the SEANWFZ Treaty reinforces ASEAN's neutrality, acting as an "anchor" against great power rivalry. Shafiah F Muhibat, writing for East Asia Forum, suggests this move "re-legitimise[s] ASEAN’s security ambition." It's a nice sentiment, but let’s dig into the numbers.

Timor-Leste did accede to the SEANWFZ Treaty. That’s a fact. And it's true that the treaty aims to prevent a nuclear arms race in Southeast Asia. However, the real power lies in whether the Nuclear Weapon States (United States, China, Russia, France, and the United Kingdom) sign and ratify its protocol. None of them have. So, is this "anchor" really holding anything down? Or is it more of a symbolic gesture – a Potemkin village of diplomacy?

Consider the broader context. ASEAN's ten member states (now eleven, with Timor-Leste) have vastly different economic and strategic priorities. Some, like the Philippines, are increasingly vocal about China's assertiveness in the South China Sea. Others, like Cambodia and Laos, maintain close ties with Beijing. This divergence isn't new, but it's becoming more pronounced.

The recent skirmish between Cambodia and Thailand over a land mine incident (resulting in wounded Thai soldiers and the death of a Cambodian villager) underscores the fragility of regional peace. ASEAN stepped in with an observer team, confirming the mine was newly placed but stopping short of assigning blame. A useful finding, sure, but hardly a display of decisive action. It's more like a band-aid on a festering wound.

The Myanmar Quagmire

Then there's Myanmar. The Five-Point Consensus, crafted in response to the 2021 military coup, called for an immediate cessation of violence and constructive dialogue. ASEAN has struggled to enforce it. The ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance has faced funding shortfalls. Envoys have met with the junta, but progress has been minimal. Some ASEAN members, like Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand, have even engaged with Myanmar bilaterally, outside the ASEAN framework.

Maria Theresa Lazaro, the Philippines’ Secretary of Foreign Affairs, has been appointed special envoy of the chair to Myanmar during the Philippines’ 2026 ASEAN chairmanship. The hope is that Manila can build on established initiatives. Analysts, however, are skeptical of any major breakthroughs. The scale of Myanmar's civil war is immense.

The numbers paint a grim picture. Since the coup, over 7,000 people have been killed, 30,000 imprisoned, and hundreds of thousands displaced. The military controls less than half the country. ASEAN's response? A lot of meetings and statements, but little concrete action.

And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling: The dissonance between ASEAN's stated goals and its actual achievements.

The Power Grid Dream

There's talk of an ASEAN power grid, a potentially transformative project aimed at harnessing the region's renewable energy potential. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has committed up to $10 billion over the next ten years. The World Bank is providing an initial $2.5 billion. The vision is compelling: cheaper electricity, enhanced energy security, lower emissions. The estimated cost? Over $750 billion.

But, hold on. Why hasn't this grid been built already? Technical reasons, sure. Different voltages, varying grid sophistication, distinct operating standards. But politics also plays a role. Countries have prioritized domestic industrial development and national energy policies. Overcoming these hurdles will require more than just money. It will require genuine political will and a willingness to compromise.

Doubling the number of interconnections across the 10 ASEAN countries could boost connected capacity from 7.2 gigawatts in 2022, to 33.5 GW fifteen years from now (by 2037). That's a significant increase—about a 465% jump. But achieving that target will require addressing the intermittency of renewable energy sources through investments in battery storage and digital technology. Why an ASEAN power grid is key to tapping Southeast Asia’s green potential

Neutrality? Or Just Gridlock?

ASEAN faces a complex web of challenges. Great power rivalry, internal divisions, regional conflicts, and ambitious infrastructure projects. The claim that Timor-Leste's accession somehow solidifies ASEAN's neutrality is, at best, a half-truth. The numbers suggest a different reality: a bloc struggling to overcome internal divisions and exert meaningful influence on regional affairs. The "anchor" of neutrality? More like a life raft in a storm, desperately trying to stay afloat.